Each week the LPL Financial Research team assembles thoughtful insight on market news.
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March 27th, 2023It’s difficult to grasp that just a few weeks ago, the fed funds futures market had priced the terminal rate at nearly 6%. The market’s hawkish outlook was predicated on the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising rates amid a still solid economy underpinned by a tight labor market and consumer spending, but with inflation still above the 2% level that reflects price stability.
March 21st, 2023The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a history of raising short-term interest rates until something “breaks.” Considering the Fed has raised rates from a near-zero level to 4.75% (upper bound) over the course of only one year, it was almost a near certainty this time would be no different. Recent bank failures suggest things are indeed starting to break.
March 13th, 2023For the “no landing” crowd thinking strong consumer spending and low unemployment would keep this economy growing until the inflation fight is won, they now have to consider signs of stress in the banking system after the failure of SVB Financial (commonly known as Silicon Valley Bank).
March 6th, 2023During those early years of the pandemic, consumers reallocated more on goods and less on services. The return to “normal” has been slow as the share of services spending is still roughly 2.5 percentage points below pre-pandemic share as of the latest report (Figure 2).
February 27th, 2023Markets, businesses, and the economy are likely to see only minimal impact from the debt ceiling debate until we are days, or maybe a few weeks, from the “x date, the date on which the federal government will no longer be able to meet all its obligations.
February 20th, 2023Coming into 2023, markets had been pricing in two 25 basis point (0.25%) interest rate hikes, one in February and the second one at the next Fed meeting on March 21-22. In addition, there were expectations of an interest rate cut at the end of the year.
February 13th, 2023Good market forecasts are not just about the economy and earnings—they are about what the market is pricing in.
February 6th, 2023Earnings are, of course, the bottom line, so when looking at an equity investment we certainly can’t ignore earnings. The U.S. has been the clear earnings leader relative to international for the past decade, but the tide has recently turned.
January 30th, 2023The script has been flipped in 2023. Last year’s underperformers have turned into outperformers this year, driving the S&P 500 Index up over 5% this month. The pace and composition of the rally have left many investors skeptical over its sustainability, especially amid a lackluster earnings season thus far.
January 16th, 2023Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. Lackluster global growth, ongoing profit margin pressures from inflation...
January 3rd, 2023If the U.S. falls into recession, the chances are it would occur during the first half of 2023 and will not likely be as deep as the 2008 recession, which was initiated by a fundamentally flawed financial market.